A month ago I wrote that Chris Matthews understood the electoral path to victory Sarah Palin could take in the primaries. In sum, she could win in Iowa, where she should have the support of Evangelical Christians, the most important voting bloc in the state’s primary, have a strong showing in New Hampshire, win South Carolina, where she was an early supporter of the woman who will be the next governor there, then win in Michigan, where she made inroads in 2008 when she did not want to concede the state, and with her immensely popular book tour last year. From there she would have an enormous delegate lead and all the momentum. It’s not a fait accompli, as Matthews makes it sound, but is entirely plausible.

Will Sarah run in 2012? I tend to think that Matthews is correct. Since she resigned her governorship, Palin has been available to write more books, post opinions on facebook and twitter (that define political debates – see: death panels), do more television and deliver more speeches. In addition, Palin has been touring the country, endorsing political candidates. She has been shrewd in her endorsements, picking candidates that have a good chance of wining, and thus owing her a favor in 2012. This strategy is similar to what Richard Nixon did after losing the 1960 presidential election. Eventually, Nixon had accumulated so many chips that it seemed as though the entire GOP was in his pocket. Having loyal supporters in key states is always important in organizing a primary campaign, and Palin is acknowledging that by supporting candidates that can win.

The establishment and the left write Sarah Palin off at their own peril. They ridiculed Ronald Reagan, calling him a ‘B-list actor’ and a country bumpkin, with extreme views. However, he was able to relate to the American people. In 1989, Ronald Reagan said, “I won a nickname, “The Great Communicator.” But I never thought it was my style or the words I used that made a difference: It was the content. I wasn’t a great communicator, but I communicated great things, and they didn’t spring full bloom from my brow, they came from the heart of a great nation – from our experience, our wisdom, and our belief in the principles that have guided us for two centuries. They called it the Reagan revolution. Well, I’ll accept that, but for me it always seemed more like the great rediscovery, a rediscover of our values and our common sense.” Reagan believed in the United States of America, and that his country was the greatest force for good in human history. Those ideas resonate with people. Sarah Palin expresses those same principles. She is what Obama would call a “bitter clinger” – in other words an American. No one knows if Sarah Palin will run or not, but if she does her homespun wisdom and unflinching belief in American Exceptionalism will make her a force to reckoned with.